U.S. Debt Default Clock
A visualization of the 12 factors indicating the U.S. government's proximity to default.
Time Until Default
60:00
U.S. Credit Score
493
Very poor
Click for details
Risk Gauge
8/12 Failing
Two Minutes to Midnight
In its May 2026 review, the Debt Default Clock Review Committee moved the Clock to two minutes from midnight — one minute closer than its July 2025 adjustment. The federal government now fails eight of the twelve objective tests, and 66 cents of every new dollar it borrows goes to pay interest on debt it already owes. Read the Committee's full assessment of how close the country stands to a true U.S. default.
12 Factors Until Default
Click any factor to explore detailed analysis and data
Federal Outlays vs. GDP
Federal outlays should not exceed 17.5% of GDP.
Debt Ceiling Status
A dollar-denominated debt ceiling should be in place and respected.
Public Debt vs. GDP
Public debt should be below 70% of GDP and gross debt should be below 100% of GDP.
Interest Payments vs. Revenue
Gross federal interest payments should not exceed 15% of federal revenues.
Interest Payments vs. New Debt
Gross federal interest payments should not exceed 70% of new debt issuance on a sustained basis.
Public Debt vs. Gross Debt
Debt held by the public should not exceed 80% of gross debt.
Foreign-Held Debt
Debt held by foreigners should not exceed 50% of debt held by the public.
Short-Term Debt Obligations
Short-term maturities and floating-rate obligations should decline materially from the 2018 level.
Federal Revenues vs. GDP
Federal revenues should meet or exceed 17.5% of GDP.
Real Economic Growth
Real U.S. economic growth should meet or exceed 3% annually.
Treasury Extraordinary Measures
Congress should prohibit Treasury from using extraordinary measures to avoid a debt ceiling breach.
Mandatory Spending
Congress should scale back programmatic mandatory spending and eventually phase it out.
Review Committee
Meet the experts in finance, economics, policy, and law who provide oversight and guidance for the Debt Default Clock.
Blog & Insights
Expert analysis and commentary on America's fiscal health and debt trajectory
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Understanding the 12 Factors of Debt Default Risk
A comprehensive overview of how the Debt Default Clock evaluates America's fiscal health through twelve critical indicators.
Documents & Archives
Access official press releases, meeting minutes, and historical records from the Review Committee.
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