U.S. Debt Default Clock
A visualization of the 12 factors indicating the U.S. government's proximity to default.
Time Until Default
U.S. Credit Score
493
Very poor
Click for details
Risk Gauge
8/12 Failing
Interest per $1 Borrowed
67¢
Open the Debt Crisis Dashboard
Latest auction October 13, 2026
Two Minutes to Midnight
In its May 2026 review, the Debt Default Clock Review Committee moved the Clock to two minutes from midnight — one minute closer than its July 2025 adjustment. The federal government now fails eight of the twelve objective tests, and 67 cents of every new dollar it borrows goes to pay interest on debt it already owes. Read the Committee's full assessment of how close the country stands to a true U.S. default.
12 Factors Until Default
Click any factor to explore detailed analysis and data
Federal Outlays vs. GDP
Federal outlays should not exceed 17.5% of GDP.
Debt Ceiling Status
A dollar-denominated debt ceiling should be in place and respected.
Public Debt vs. GDP
Public debt should be below 70% of GDP and gross debt should be below 100% of GDP.
Interest Payments vs. Revenue
Gross federal interest payments should not exceed 15% of federal revenues.
Interest Payments vs. New Debt
Gross federal interest payments should not exceed 70% of new debt issuance on a sustained basis.
Public Debt vs. Gross Debt
Debt held by the public should not exceed 80% of gross debt.
Foreign-Held Debt
Debt held by foreigners should not exceed 50% of debt held by the public.
Short-Term Debt Obligations
Short-term maturities and floating-rate obligations should decline materially from the 2018 level.
Federal Revenues vs. GDP
Federal revenues should meet or exceed 17.5% of GDP.
Real Economic Growth
Real U.S. economic growth should meet or exceed 3% annually.
Treasury Extraordinary Measures
Congress should prohibit Treasury from using extraordinary measures to avoid a debt ceiling breach.
Mandatory Spending
Congress should scale back programmatic mandatory spending and eventually phase it out.
Monthly Debt Update
Issued by the Joint Economic Committee each month. Archived here as it is released.
Released October 7, 2026
$40.25T
Gross national debt
+$2.39T
One-year change
$298,606
Per household
3.518%
Avg. interest rate
Next milestone
$41,000,000,000,000
Expected on or about February 3, 2027
Source: U.S. Treasury; JEC Republicans calculations. Figures as of October 5, 2026.
Review Committee
Meet the experts in finance, economics, policy, and law who provide oversight and guidance for the Debt Default Clock.
Blog & Insights
Expert analysis and commentary on America's fiscal health and debt trajectory
Debt Default Clock Committee Asks CBO to Assess the Risk of a Federal Fiscal Crisis and Default
In a letter to CBO Director Phillip Swagel, the Review Committee asks that the January 2027 Budget and Economic Outlook include an explicit assessment of the risk of a federal fiscal crisis and default. The government now fails eight of the twelve tests. The crisis threshold is ten.
National Seniors Policy Center Warns U.S. Debt Crisis Is Entering a Dangerous New Stage
New report explains step-by-step how a federal default could unfold — and why Social Security beneficiaries could be among the first Americans affected. Roughly 67 cents of every new dollar the federal government borrows now goes toward paying interest on debt it already owes.
Why a US Government Debt Default is The Greatest Existential Threat to Social Security's Solvency
An analysis of how government default would catastrophically undermine the Social Security Trust Fund. While much attention has been paid to Social Security's projected 2033 trust fund depletion, these concerns pale in comparison to the catastrophic threat posed by a potential US government debt default.
Unlock a Trillion Goldfall for the U.S. Treasury, without Issuing New Debt
A Strategic Possibility: Revaluing U.S. Gold Reserves to Expand the Money Supply Through Hypothecation
Documents & Archives
Access official press releases, meeting minutes, and historical records from the Review Committee.
Stay Informed
Sign up to receive updates on the U.S. Debt Default Clock and fiscal policy insights.
We respect your privacy. Unsubscribe at any time.