U.S. Debt Default Clock
A visualization of the 12 factors indicating the U.S. government's proximity to default.
Time Until Default
60:00
U.S. Credit Score
493
Very poor
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Risk Gauge
8/12 Failing
12 Factors Until Default
Click any factor to explore detailed analysis and data
Federal Outlays vs. GDP
Federal outlays should not exceed 17.5% of GDP.
Debt Ceiling Status
A dollar-denominated debt ceiling should be in place and respected.
Public Debt vs. GDP
Public debt should be below 70% of GDP.
Interest Payments vs. Revenue
Gross federal interest payments should not exceed 15% of federal revenues.
Interest Payments vs. New Debt
Gross federal interest payments should not exceed 70% of new debt issuance.
Public Debt vs. Gross Debt
Debt held by the public should not exceed 80% of the gross debt.
Foreign-Held Debt
Debt held by foreigners should not exceed 50% of public debt.
Short-Term Debt Obligations
Short-term maturities and floating rate obligations should decline from 2018 levels.
Federal Revenues vs. GDP
Federal revenues should be below 17.5% of GDP.
Real Economic Growth
Real U.S. economic growth should meet or exceed 3% annually.
Treasury "Extraordinary Measures"
Congress should prohibit the Treasury from using "extraordinary measures" to avoid default.
Mandatory Spending
Congress should scale back programmatic "mandatory spending."
Review Committee
Meet the experts in finance, economics, policy, and law who provide oversight and guidance for the Debt Default Clock.
Blog & Insights
Expert analysis and commentary on America's fiscal health and debt trajectory
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Understanding the 12 Factors of Debt Default Risk
A comprehensive overview of how the Debt Default Clock evaluates America's fiscal health through twelve critical indicators.
Documents & Archives
Access official press releases, meeting minutes, and historical records from the Review Committee.
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